Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 81352.762181 85873.216095 90390.956399 95241.521945 100298.724072 105412.614177 110971.374598
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 74437.479377 81400.553962 88552.523000 96437.309926 104875.665748 113625.255179 123372.887690
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 68475.284971 77028.767621 86007.554082 96114.370968 107152.587595 118820.480331 132064.641876
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 65102.278147 74967.354629 85509.973291 97579.934880 110980.067981 125364.611795 141936.563523
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 62023.510209 72912.478955 84733.876205 98469.438948 113936.616870 130761.382219 150391.686647
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 58891.785104 70557.390370 83405.639278 98536.242591 115793.908323 134790.570143 157206.605447
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 56020.278780 68312.757787 82033.379371 98392.487332 117271.323196 138278.276228 163321.053244
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 54614.676441 67652.269545 82377.680897 100127.156633 120821.822289 144067.077683 172024.787844
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 53345.174250 67061.557598 82726.204794 101800.492636 124252.420521 149691.530245 180537.957846
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 51687.732432 65921.512726 82353.487286 102560.083710 126564.227419 153989.990169 187505.438656
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 49689.016325 64282.535586 81310.125520 102452.433980 127794.409477 156984.657283 192926.641350
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 48122.599638 63099.384975 80750.087159 102865.254003 129595.894920 160618.573208 199084.471720
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 46382.882996 61666.880025 79865.898783 102879.921908 130934.733678 163743.877921 204712.817633
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 45401.665157 61138.582648 80055.000445 104179.596936 133817.242672 168718.732335 212579.487152
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 43670.483571 59605.056892 78950.546919 103841.987793 134670.045611 171235.922411 217493.039096
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 42967.580194 59343.277397 79398.179826 105402.520634 137835.850839 176546.363036 225796.465787
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 42021.452002 58730.980592 79374.279545 106349.025772 140228.736901 180916.550348 232975.172458
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 40726.466759 57621.641752 78682.204038 106420.146870 141507.288395 183910.566144 238474.633325
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 39400.580080 56427.786546 77842.402075 106267.247124 142476.010094 186505.070067 243478.325627
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 39024.650756 56469.783290 78575.886165 108112.247264 145959.327800 192218.930134 252358.773622
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 38643.487899 56486.378018 79263.402811 109891.644949 149362.905378 197849.488764 261169.421643
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 37872.765391 55952.930959 79212.085257 110699.264674 151520.709476 201927.838881 268065.290203
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 36757.102608 54918.372538 78472.786225 110584.812733 152477.160475 204488.300444 273063.786220